Jan 21, 2026 View in Browser

Executive Briefing

Timely Analysis for Credit Union Leaders

Michael Ogden, Editor-in-Chief, CU Times

Michael Ogden, Editor-in-Chief, CU Times

Natasha Chilingerian, Executive Editor, CU Times

Natasha Chilingerian, Executive Editor, CU Times

A Message From the Editors

It’s been very interesting for us to watch how credit union executives have moved their lending teams beyond their traditional areas to expand into the commercial lending space. This slow-growth trend is something we’ve been watching since the pandemic, and today’s report reveals that commercial lending is truly working for CUs. How? Read on for answers.

CU Commercial Loans Are Up: Can Their Quality Hold?

 

Credit unions had more loans on their books for businesses than for new cars in September. 

Credit unions’ balance of car loans has been slipping for the past few years while its book of commercial loans has been expanding faster than most other loan types. 

The result has been that commercial loans make up an ever larger portion of the credit union portfolio.  

Part of that might be intentional. A Jan. 12 report from Cox Automotive said credit unions expanded their credit in December, but at a slower rate than captives, finance companies and banks. 

Meanwhile, a Jan. 13 report from the Mortgage Bankers Association revealed that credit unions’ commercial loan balances continue to rise at more than double the rate of the rest of the nation. 

The growth in the portfolio is being fed by large gains in originations. 

The fastest gains for credit unions (and other lenders) have been for loans backed by apartments and other multifamily properties. 

Credit unions produced $9 billion in multifamily loans in the 12 months ending September 2025, up 50% from the previous 12 months. Other types of commercial real estate grew 34% to $30.9 billion, and commercial loans not backed by real estate grew 18% to $7.1 billion. 

Multifamily loans were also the hot ticket nationally – but only by balance growth. 

The Jan. 9 MBA report showed the nation’s multifamily real estate balance stood at $2.24 trillion on Sept. 30, up 5.9% from a year earlier while other commercial loans grew just 2.5%. 

However, the story is different when measuring originations. An MBA forecast released last October showed multifamily originations growing at half the rate of other types of commercial real estate in 2025 and 2026.  

It forecast production in 2025 would rise 24% for multifamily and 47% for other commercial real estate. In 2026, it forecast gains of 16% for multifamily and 33% for other. 

Along with the thrill of growth, there is a bit of anxiety with deteriorating loan quality. 

Callahan’s Peer Suite shows net charge-off rates for commercial loans were 0.17% in the third quarter, up from 0.12% a year earlier and 0.04% two years earlier. 

The delinquency rate for commercial loans was 0.41% in September 2022 and 0.44% in September 2023, running well below delinquency rates for the entire portfolio. 

But the delinquency rate jumped to 0.89% by September 2024, nearly matching the overall delinquency rate, which had also risen. 

By September 2025, the commercial delinquency rate was 1.08%, compared with 0.95% for all loans. 

The delinquency rate is higher for commercial loans not backed by real estate. They have tracked credit card delinquency rates for the past year – excluding the seasonal relief for consumer loans in tax refund season. 

Commercial real estate delinquencies are lower and have tracked with the overall delinquency rate for the past year. 

Delinquencies have also risen for commercial real estate, but not as much as for commercial loans not backed by real estate.  

 
Q&A

In August 2025, the Small Business Administration issued guidance targeting "debanking," the practice of denying or terminating financial services based on a customer's political views, religious beliefs or involvement in controversial but legal industries. This directive, issued under Executive Order 14331 "Guaranteeing Fair Banking for All Americans," required SBA-participating lenders to review their policies, identify any potentially discriminatory practices, and submit compliance reports by Jan. 5, 2026. We recently asked Jacob Bennett, CEO and co-founder of Crux Analytics, to break down what the guidance means for credit unions and how they can prepare for further debanking-related regulatory actions down the road. 

  

CU Times: For credit union leaders, what did the Jan. 5 deadline represent? And, what types of challenges has the guidance brought for credit union compliance teams? 

 

Bennett: The deadline represented far more than a regulatory checkbox. The executive order has fundamentally reshaped how financial institutions must document, justify and defend every account decision they make. Credit unions participating in SBA lending programs must identify any potentially discriminatory policies and submit compliance reports. Non-compliance risks loss of SBA good standing, non-renewal of delegated authority and potential Department of Justice referral. 

 

The difficulty confronting credit union compliance teams is not simply understanding what the rules prohibit. The real problem lies in demonstrating what they permit. NCUA Letter 25-CU-05, issued Sept. 25, 2025, explicitly eliminated ‘reputation risk’ from the examination and supervisory process. Examiners will no longer base supervisory concerns on reputation risk, nor will they engage in discussions about it during examinations. 

 

Yet the removal of reputation risk creates its own documentation burden. Credit unions retain their obligations under the Bank Secrecy Act and anti-money laundering requirements. When a credit union terminates an account or denies services for legitimate BSA/AML concerns, that decision may still invite regulatory scrutiny if the member operates within what regulators might perceive as a ‘disfavored, controversial or politicized industry.’ The practical effect is that financial institutions must now convert abstract reputational concerns into concrete, measurable risk assessments backed by thorough documentation. 

 

The reality extends beyond regulatory compliance. Small businesses already face constant economic uncertainty, from supply chain disruptions to policy whiplash. They need financial partners that can help them navigate unexpected challenges, not just process transactions. Credit unions have historically excelled at this relationship-based approach, understanding local market conditions and providing strategic guidance during volatile periods, but are still growing within the small business space. The debanking regulations simply add another layer of complexity during this crucial inflection point and in an environment where small business owners depend on their financial institution to help them see around corners. 

  

CU Times: What kind of regulatory activity should credit unions expect in 2026 concerning debanking? 

 

Bennett: Regulators will weigh debanking practices in licensing and supervisory decisions throughout 2026. The NCUA's proposed rulemaking, published Oct. 21, 2025, would bar the agency from pressuring credit unions to deny or terminate services based on members' political, social, cultural or religious positions. Comments were due Dec. 22, 2025, and final implementation is expected throughout 2026. 

 

The OCC has already indicated in Bulletin 2025-22 that debanking practices will factor into licensing applications and CRA ratings for banks. Credit union leaders should anticipate similar considerations influencing NCUA supervisory decisions, merger applications and field of membership expansions in the coming year. 

 

The Federal Register notice establishing EO 14331 defines ‘federal banking regulators’ to include the NCUA alongside the SBA and other agencies. By Feb. 3, 2026, all covered regulators must review supervisory and complaint data to identify institutions engaged in unlawful debanking, particularly on the basis of religion, with potential referrals to the Attorney General for civil action. 

  

CU Times: What types of opportunities does the spotlight on debanking provide to credit unions, and what steps should they take to ensure a strong compliance posture?  

 

Bennett: For credit unions that already prioritize relationship banking and member service over transactional efficiency, this regulatory environment presents a competitive advantage. Institutions that can demonstrate transparent, consistent, risk-based decision making will stand out as regulators scrutinize the broader financial services industry. 

 

Credit unions possess a structural advantage in this environment. America's Credit Unions noted in its support of the NCUA's proposed rule that credit unions typically maintain member relationships regardless of political beliefs or viewpoints, while also ensuring that their ability to make independent risk assessments free from regulatory pressure is preserved. The cooperative model, built on the principle of sustained member relationships rather than transactional banking, naturally aligns with the executive order's intent to prevent discrimination based on personal views while allowing institutions to manage legitimate financial risks. 

 

However, alignment in principle requires demonstration in practice. Rather than viewing these requirements solely as compliance burdens, forward-thinking credit unions can use them to strengthen their competitive position and member relationships. Credit union leaders should prioritize three immediate actions: 

  • Conduct a five-year look-back review of account terminations and service denials. The SBA's compliance form for institutions under $30 billion in assets requires a thorough examination of existing records, though it stops short of demanding formal attestation. Nonetheless, this review must be documented comprehensively. 
  • Update policies and training materials to ensure all adverse account decisions are supported by concrete, quantifiable risk factors specific to each individual client, as regulatory guidance requires, rather than generalized industry profiles or subjective reputational concerns.
  • Establish clear audit trails that distinguish BSA/AML-driven decisions from any action that could be characterized as politically motivated. OCC Bulletin 2025-23 clarifies that banks must not use voluntary Suspicious Activity Reports to inappropriately share customers' confidential financial information. Credit unions should apply the same standard to their own SAR policies. 
 
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On Our Radar

The Credit Card Competition Act is back from the grave after President Trump posted that he wants to cap credit card interest rates at 10% for one year. Another government shutdown could happen in the next 10 days. The first NCUA Board meeting of the year is tomorrow. Is the agency just in regulatory rollback mode? Seems so. Is the CFPB still funded? Depends on who you ask. We’re only 21 days in, and we think we’re going to need a bigger radar for 2026.  

 

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